| Pin Number | Average Number of Boxes | Cost ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.00 | 23.00 |
| 2 | 1.00 | 23.00 |
| 3 | 2.04 | 46.92 |
| 4 | 2.54 | 58.42 |
| 5 | 3.58 | 82.34 |
| 6 | 4.79 | 110.17 |
| 7 | 6.66 | 153.18 |
| 8 | 10.39 | 238.97 |
If you just want to try the web app yourself, you can click the link and go here.
Have you ever wondered how many pin blind boxes you should get when collecting a set? Well here is what it looks like if we run 1,000,000 simulations of trying to complete a single set:
| Pin Number | Average Number of Boxes | Cost ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1.00 | 23.00 |
| 2 | 1.00 | 23.00 |
| 3 | 2.04 | 46.92 |
| 4 | 2.54 | 58.42 |
| 5 | 3.58 | 82.34 |
| 6 | 4.79 | 110.17 |
| 7 | 6.66 | 153.18 |
| 8 | 10.39 | 238.97 |
The first box is ALWAYS going to get you two new pins because you presumably are starting from zero. And then that second box normally gets you a third one (there are some extreme cases where it doesn’t) but it is not as reliable to get 3 and 4 in that second box!
The most important thing about the graph is the way that the line gets steeper as you go. The more pins you have, the harder it is to get that next pin. Especially when you get to the 7th and 8th pin.
If you have all but the last one and you’re ready to complete the set, on average you have to spend $85.79 buying 3.73 more boxes to get that final piece (and of course it’s the one you really wanted all along).
| Bought | Price ($) | |
|---|---|---|
| count | 1000000.00 | 1000000.00 |
| mean | 10.39 | 239.04 |
| std | 4.03 | 92.58 |
| min | 4.00 | 92.00 |
| 25% | 8.00 | 184.00 |
| 50% | 10.00 | 230.00 |
| 75% | 12.00 | 276.00 |
| max | 59.00 | 1357.00 |
So the main takeway is the average number you need to buy to complete this set would be 10.39 for an average spend of $239.04.
Worst Case Scenario
In my 1,000,000 simulations the most number of boxes that it took to get all of them was an astounding 59 boxes! (That’s $1357.00 to finish one mystery set.) You’d be much better off just trading for it way before that.